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COVID-19 and gender: how better data can drive a more inclusive recovery
In recent years, there has been notable progress in gender equality across the African continent. The 2020 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) shows that between 2015 and 2019, the Gender sub-category followed a positive trajectory, due to increasing progress in the political power and representation of women and in their access… Read more, Most African countries (35) have put in place response policies that target women’s economic security, with Egypt having the most (9), followed by Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa (6 each). 27 countries have policies that address violence against women, with Egypt (12), Ethiopia (11), Uganda and Zimbabwe (9 each) having the most. Only six… Read more, Data is key to properly informing the design of recovery policies. However, sex-disaggregated data on the impact of COVID-19 on women is still often lacking. By April 2021, only 29 of the 47 African countries (62%) in the WHO Africa region had reported sex-disaggregated data on confirmed COVID-19 cases. Only 15 countries reported sex-… Read more, Data assessing secondary impacts of the pandemic are often outdated and not updated regularly. This includes data on job losses, domestic violence or unpaid care work. The reliance on phone surveys to understand COVID-19 impacts also disproportionately excludes women, especially those most vulnerable and most at need of social assistance… Read more
Africa’s third wave and the threat from variants
According to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (AfCDC), as of 27 July 2021, a total of 6,507,319 COVID-19 cases and 165,294 deaths have been reported across Africa. These represent 3% of all cases and 4% of all deaths reported globally. The African Continental Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) is 2.5%, with 24 AU Member states… Read more, Community transmission: Countries experiencing larger outbreaks of local transmission defined by large numbers of cases not linkable to transmission chains and multiple unrelated clusters in several areas of the country. , Many countries are still at peak risk According to the AfCDC, most new COVID-19 cases reported between 19-25 July 2021 are from Southern Africa (58%), followed by Northern Africa (29%), Eastern Africa (7%), Western Africa (5%) and Central Africa (1%). Six countries alone account for 69% of the new cases in this week: South Africa (35… Read more, The increasing threat of variants calls for strengthened genomic sequencing This new wave of infections seems to be mainly driven by the arrival of the Delta variant on the continent. As of 21 July 2021, 45 African countries have reported the presence of at least one of the Alpha (38 countries), Beta (32 countries), and/or Delta (21… Read more, By altering the spike proteins, new variants may become more transmissible and less easy to diagnose and may result in more-severe disease. Additionally, they can potentially evade immunity from natural infection or vaccines. A recent study in the New England Journal of Medicine has shown the AstraZeneca vaccine provides minimal… Read more
Domestic resource mobilisation: Financing a post-COVID agenda
Across Africa, many countries are reeling from the holes that COVID-19 has blown in their budgets. In the short term, an immediate liquidity boost - comprised of new Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and other rapid liquidity facilities - is essential to fund an effective response to the third wave and free up fiscal space going forward, as discussed… Read more, Domestic resource mobilisation can be expanded through stronger tax administration, better enforcement of tax laws, formalisation of informal trade that leaves many outside the tax pool, and innovative taxes such as the digital services tax being developed by ATAF. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that… Read more, Stopping the bleed of capital flight The onset of the pandemic saw a wave of capital flight from African economies, reducing the resources available to governments to tackle the crisis and highlighting the ongoing challenge this issue presents to African governments. Capital flight occurs when the value of assets… Read more, Strong institutions and political stability are important in deterring capital flight. A 2020 UNCTAD report noted that capital flight was also proportionally higher among African countries with lower investment in health and education. In essence, good governance is key. However, to tackle IFFs the technical capabilities and… Read more
COVID-19: A stumbling block for Africa’s demographic dividend?
Africa’s population is the youngest in the world, with a median age of 19.7 in 2020. Around 60% of Africa’s population is younger than 25 years and more than a third is between 15-34 years old. Between now and 2100, Africa’s youth population is expected to grow by around +180%, meaning that it will be equivalent to twice Europe’s entire population… Read more, Undeniably, young Africans are the continent’s greatest asset that could power its growth and development. Africa could expect its annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita to grow by up to half a percentage point by 2030 if enough jobs are created for its young people. However, the 2021 Ibrahim Forum Report, which assesses the… Read more, Demographic dividend The demographic dividend refers to the economic surplus generated by a decline in birth rates, a decline in the number of young dependants and an increase in the proportion of working-age adults. The projected larger workforce can lead to a boost in economic productivity, savings and investments. Learning deprivation… Read more, A pre-existing learning crisis Even before COVID-19, Africa was facing a learning crisis. Students' minimum proficiency levels in sub-Saharan Africa are already the lowest globally, with a learning deprivation gap of around 20%, double the global average rate. Due to COVID-19, sub-Saharan Africa is poised to potentially see the largest… Read more, This will also affect the productivity of future workers. According to the World Bank’s Human Capital Index (HCI), a child born in Africa just before COVID-19 can, on average, expect to achieve the lowest productivity as a future worker among all world regions. The World Bank estimates that for a majority of African countries there will be a… Read more, Results from a survey conducted with MIF’s Now Generation Network (NGN) provide insights into the concerns of Africa’s youth in relation to the pandemic. Notably, economic concerns outweigh health worries. Participants consider unemployment to be the second biggest challenge during the pandemic (66% of the 143 respondents) after economic… Read more
Challenges of vaccine manufacturing in Africa
The 2021 Ibrahim Forum Report, assessing the impact of COVID-19 in Africa one year on, sheds light on Africa’s almost non-existent vaccine manufacturing capacities. In the short-term, African countries are focusing on working together to increase their access, currently still very low, to additional vaccine doses, with the African… Read more, About 70% of global vaccine drug substance manufacturing sites are located in Western Europe (40%) and North America (30%), whereas global vaccine production is mostly concentrated in Asia, with about 42% of vaccines acquired from the top three Asian manufacturers (Bharat Biotech, BioMed and the Serum Institute of India). As highlighted by Dr… Read more, Vaccine value chain player is a manufacturer engaged in at least one stage of the vaccine value chain: Research & Development (R&D), Drug Substance (DS) manufacturing, fill and finish, packaging and labelling, or import for distribution. , Of the 10 local vaccine value chain players: about 40% engage in packaging and labelling, and 40% engage in fill and finish only five engage in some degree of drug substance manufacturing, but mostly on a very small scale Research & Development (R&D) capacities are very limited on the continent and are only located… Read more, Compulsory licenses (CLs) are when a government allows someone else to produce a patented product or process without the consent of the patent owner or plans to use the patent-protected invention itself. , An analysis by Imperial College of London commissioned by Doctors Without Borders (MSF), estimated the total cost needed for starting up mRNA vaccine manufacturing in an existing site and producing 100 million doses to be approximately $127 million for Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine and $270 million for Moderna’s. This is a fraction of the $2.5B… Read more
Resource dependency, COVID-19 and the move towards diversification
rior to the COVID-19 pandemic, many African countries experienced years of uninterrupted growth. Much of this growth had been spurred by the export of primary commodities, unprocessed raw materials such as crude oil, copper or cocoa, to countries outside the continent. In Africa, primary commodities account for a greater share of exports than for… Read more, The COVID-19 crisis has underscored the vulnerability of commodity-led growth The vulnerabilities of commodity dependency have been under the microscope for some time, with terms such as ‘resource curse’ or ‘Dutch disease’ long present in the continent’s economic discourse. The impact of the pandemic has re-emphasised these… Read more, In Nigeria, the continent’s top oil exporter, crude sales account for more than half of government revenues and over 90% of foreign exchange. Crude oil accounts for 90% of revenues in Angola and 73% in South Sudan, while in Libya, hydrocarbons accounted for 96% of the budget between 2014 and 2018. Repercussions were also felt in the private sector… Read more, Responding to the COVID-19 crisis - a unique opportunity to diversify? As the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and others have argued, the crisis presents an opportunity for Africa’s resource-dependent economies to restructure and diversify. For the continent’s oil dependent nations, extraction and exportation have been capital… Read more
What’s trust got to do with it? State-society relations and COVID-19 recovery
Public trust in leadership and institutions is key for an effective response to the COVID-19 crisis. High trust societies tend to be more successful in fighting epidemics. Not only does trust matter for public support and adherence to health and safety measures, it is also an essential element in countries’ paths to recovery. Trust… Read more, Afrobarometer surveys also reveal how Africans are concerned about their leaders using the pandemic for private gain. On average, across 12 African countries, almost 70% of respondents believe that resources intended for the pandemic have fallen victim to corruption. Almost 60% fear that politicians are increasing their power and authority… Read more, Africans have little trust in their governments ensuring the safety of COVID-19 vaccines According to these Afrobarometer surveys, less than half the respondents in all 12 countries bar Mauritius (see graph below) trust their governments to ensure the safety of COVID-19 vaccines before offering them to their citizens. Trust is as low as 20% in… Read more, On average, only 38.5% of respondents across 12 African countries trust their countries’ official COVID-19 statistics. Trust in government statistics is highest in Mauritius (66%) and Zimbabwe (50%), and lowest in Liberia (30%) and Gambia (22%). Disruptions to democratic practices are still happening As shown in the 2021… Read more, COVID-19 recovery needs citizens’ buy-in In the face of existing low levels of trust, African governments will need to work harder to ensure that citizens do not become more disenfranchised. A sustainable recovery from COVID-19 will not be possible without citizens’ buy-in to government policies and measures. Inequitable vaccine… Read more
Why Africa needs a New Public Health Order to tackle the threat of infectious diseases
COVID-19 has shown how infectious diseases constitute a serious threat to health, global economies and security, respecting no boundaries. Africa’s burden of endemic and infectious diseases, the largest in the world, poses a significant threat to the continent’s aspiration to achieve its long-term developmental blueprint ‘Agenda 2063: The… Read more, Universal Health Coverage (UHC) means that all people have access to the health services they need, when and where they need them, without financial hardship. , As highlighted by Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), during the 2021 Ibrahim Governance Weekend, the pandemic has underlined the importance of investing in Universal Health Coverage (UHC), based on primary healthcare and strong community engagement, for global health security. While all… Read more, Almost 80% of respondents in MIF’s 2021 Now Generation Network (NGN) survey state that citizens in their countries face obstacles to accessing free and universal healthcare. Over 90% cited lack of health capacity and almost 80% cited costs as the main obstacles to healthcare. , As a consequence, domestic private spending on health is higher in Africa than in the rest of the world. In 2018, domestic private health expenditure as a share of current health expenditure (CHE) in sub-Saharan Africa was more than 10 percentage points higher than the global average (51.4% and 40.3%, respectively), and out-of-pocket health… Read more, Out-of-pocket payments are spending on health directly out-of-pocket by households. , The limits of international cooperation have been exposed The COVID-19 pandemic has also revealed how fragile international cooperation can be when the world is collectively threatened and challenged by a common disease threat. The ease with which Africa was left out of the COVID-19 diagnostics market demonstrated how easily global cooperation… Read more, According to Dr Nkengasong, a New Public Health Order is needed to fight the inverse care law, a principle that prevails in Africa today. The inverse care law states that the availability of good medical or social care tends to vary inversely with the need of the population served. , The Partnership for African Vaccine Manufacturing (PAVM) A major outcome of the AfCDC-AU conference on vaccine manufacturing in April 2021, the PAVM aims at achieving the third pillar through: agenda-setting and coordination establishment of regional vaccine production hubs (one in each of the five African… Read more, Despite representing about 25% of global vaccine demand, Africa still produces less than 0.1% of the world’s vaccines and about 99% of its routine vaccines are imported. , In addition to the short-term goal of administering COVID-19 vaccines to 60% of Africa’s population by 2022, the PAVM aims to deal with the continent’s wider vaccine needs, including: vaccines for known African pathogens: local production of 100% of vaccines needed for at least 1-3 emerging diseases, such as Ebola, Lassa fever and Rift… Read more
COVID-19 has further complicated Africa’s road to 'Silencing the Guns'
2020 was supposed to be the year all guns fell silent in Africa. A flagship project of the African Union’s Agenda 2063, 'Silencing the Guns' aims at “ending all wars, civil conflicts, gender-based violence, violent conflicts and preventing genocide”. The deadline for the project was set to 2020 with the AU making 'Silencing the Guns' its… Read more, According to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), levels of violence in Africa increased in 2020 compared to 2019, with the number of battles, explosions/remote violence and violent attacks against civilians all rising. Violence against civilians by state security forces was often connected to… Read more, Battles 2019-2020: +41.8% Violence against civilians by state forces 2019-2020: +39.0% Violence against civilians by non-state actors: +23.7% Explosions/remote violence 2019-2020: +14.6% , In most cases, violent events occurred in environments already experiencing long-term instability. Four of five countries worst affected by battle violence in 2020 (in order, with the most affected first: Somalia, DR Congo, Nigeria, Mali, Cameroon) have been among the worst-hit in the past years as well, Mali being the exception. DR Congo,… Read more, The ongoing violence on the continent also has wider implications for the containment of COVID-19. The large and rising number of refugees and internally displaced persons are particularly vulnerable. Over 60 million people live in areas which are not controlled by government and run by non-state armed groups, where access to vaccinations… Read more
Weathering the next crisis – the AfCFTA as a tool for resilience
With the long-awaited launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in January 2021, trade is at the centre of the debate surrounding Africa’s COVID-19 recovery. Against the background of recent macroeconomic growth that has failed to generate significant new employment opportunities for Africa's burgeoning youth population, the… Read more, Imports are dominated by manufactured goods sourced from outside the continent. Most countries rely on external supply of essential goods, from food to vehicles, telecoms equipment, clothes, and pharmaceuticals. , Intra-continental trade is consequently very low. In 2019, only four African countries counted another country on the continent as their main export partner. Intra-continental trade constitutes less than 15% of total trade, in comparison to 67.1% in Europe and 60.5% in Asia. The lack of intra-regional trade and dependence on external markets… Read more, Vulnerable to headwinds Commenting on the continent’s trade structures and growth patterns, former United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) head Carlos Lopes said the African continent will “grow rapidly yet transform slowly, making it vulnerable to headwinds”. This vulnerability was laid bare by the pandemic. When… Read more, The AfCFTA as a buffer against external shocks By boosting intra-African trade and generating regional supply chains the AfCFTA can improve the continent’s resilience to shocks such as COVID-19. The AfCFTA commits signatories to the removal of tariffs on 90 percent of goods, to progressively liberalise trade in services and to address… Read more
