The Road to COP27

Africa’s climate paradox

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Following the Ibrahim Governance Forum, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation published the Ibrahim Forum Report, The Road to COP27: Making Africa’s Case in the Climate Debate, combining the latest data on the climate crisis in Africa with the key takeaways from the Ibrahim Governance Forum, putting forward 15 recommendations for how policymakers and climate leaders can articulate Africa’s case in the global climate debate and ensure the continent’s interests are no longer marginalised.

Africa has registered the lowest per capita emissions of any world region every year for at least the last 60 years.

Despite this marginal contribution to global emissions and climate change, temperatures are already rising faster in Africa than anywhere else.

On the current trajectory, mean annual temperature increases across the continent will exceed 2°C and could rise as much as 6°C before the end of the 21st century.

Africa: lowest emissions, but paying the highest price

Between 1960 and 2020, Africa only accounted for 3.3% of global emissions, whilst Asia, Europe and North America have each emitted over eight times this much carbon.

From 2010-2022 in Africa:

With temperatures rising, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods are also becoming increasingly common across the continent.

The crisis is only deepening. The Horn of Africa is currently facing its worst drought in over 40 years, with around 20 million people experiencing hunger as a consequence.

43 million

affected by floods

172.3 million

affected by droughts

With temperatures rising, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods are also becoming increasingly common across the continent.

The crisis is only deepening.
The Horn of Africa 
is currently facing its worst drought in 
over 40 years, with
around 20 million people experiencing hunger as a consequence.

The ten most climate vulnerable countries at a global level are all African, hosting 20.1% of the continent’s population.

The impacts of the climate crisis such as extreme weather events are ultimately being felt more acutely on the continent due to Africa’s unique vulnerability.

Africa’s unique vulnerability

This extreme vulnerability is due to several pre-existing challenges, all of which combine to create a vicious cycle in which the continent’s low resilience is further eroded, and the impacts of the climate crisis are compounded.

Factors that exacerbate climate impact and lower resilience are more prominent in Africa than anywhere else

Factors that exacerbate climate impact and lower resilience
are more prominent in Africa than anywhere else

Select region to see level of challenge

Australasia

Europe

North America

Small Islands

Asia

Central & South America

Africa

Mild challenges

Moderate challenges

Severe challenges

Agricultural productivity

Climate change is continuing to shrink crop yields and productivity across Africa.

Agricultural productivity growth has already been reduced by -34% since 1961 due to climate change, more than in any other region.

In eight of the ten most climate vulnerable countries in Africa, at least 60% of the working population are employed in the agricultural sector




Poverty

Poverty is already high in Africa’s most climate vulnerable countries.

Without immediate action, 39.7 million additional people in sub-Saharan Africa could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change, more than in any other world region.

39.7 million additional people in sub-Saharan Africa could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030 due to climate change

Food security

The climate crisis and the extreme weather events that come with it are continuing to exacerbate food insecurity across the continent.

Around 800 million people in Africa are already affected by moderate or severe food insecurity and current forecasts expect climate change to push an additional 78 million people into chronic hunger by 2050, over half of them in sub-Saharan Africa.

Around 800 million people in Africa are already affected by moderate or severe food insecurity

Since 2010, the number of protests and riots in Africa over water resources have multiplied by 40

The impacts of climate change in Africa are far-reaching, acting as a ‘threat multiplier’ that intensifies political, social and economic tensions. Climate change induced socioeconomic challenges, loss of livelihoods and shrinking resources all increase the risk of instability, displacement, migrations, social unrest and conflict.

Water is the main driver of climate-related security risks.

Damilola Ogunbiyi

Growing risk of instability and displacement

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We have to supply adequate clean cooking, we have to supply gas to integrate as a baseload for renewable. Renewables don’t just happen magically.

Climate change is also driving Africa’s displacement crisis. In 2020 alone, 4.3 million persons were newly displaced by natural disaster events, accounting for almost 40% of all new internal displacement that year.

Without climate action, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see the displacement and migration of up to 85.7 million people, equivalent to 4.2% of the continent’s population.

Africa’s climate
change efforts must be development-proofed

The strong adverse impacts and effects of climate change on poverty, hunger, equality, urbanisation, peace and security mean that the lack of progress on climate goals at a global level severely hampers the realisation of other development goals.

Despite championing SDG13 on climate action, Africa faces serious challenges in other key SDGs, particularly those that impact resilience to climate change, as well as those where achievement might be hampered by climate change such as SDG1 on poverty, SDG2 on hunger, and SDG7 on energy.

of the world’s mineral reserves are in Africa

30%

Africa’s specific vulnerabilities must be given full consideration and placed at the centre of global climate solutions.

The climate agenda cannot come at the expense of Africa’s development

Mahmoud Mohieldin

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We need to have a balanced, holistic approach, that puts into consideration the climate agenda with poverty, nutrition, job opportunities, water, electricity.

Key recommendations for COP27

Do not work in silos: address the interaction between climate, development and security challenges

Invest in resilience to prevent loss and damage to lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure

Mitigation alone cannot address the scope of the problem: increase focus on adaptation and ‘loss and damage’ compensation


Climate protection cannot be achieved by sacrificing the right of Africa’s people to economically develop.

A focus should be put on climate-resilient infrastructure, housing, and urban-planning.

Negotiate adequate financial mechanisms for adaptation as well as for ‘loss and damage’ compensation.

Kristalina Georgieva

The devastating effects of climate change are robbing Africa of lives and livelihoods.

Glasgow was a discussion on a global target for mitigation. There should also be a global target for adaptation.

Yasmine Fouad

Ibrahima Cheikh Diong

Africa needs to build climate resilience, and specifically early-warning systems. Modelling risk and exposure will help taking the necessary measures in anticipation of disasters.