What public perception data tell us about the kind of political systems African citizens want?

As Francis Fukuyama declared the ‘end of history’ with what many perceived as an ideological victory to liberal democracy following the fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union , decades on the ‘Era of Democracy’ are unravelling according to V-DEM . Citizens are disillusioned and democracies are falling, a global conversation is emerging particularly in African countries over ownership, defying the default democracy and the way forward. 

Afrobarometer survey data provide unrivalled insights into the public perceptions of citizens on the continent. Africa has faced democratic set-backs in the latest years following consecutive coups, electoral inconsistencies and shrinking civil society. While democracy is the preferred form of government for 65.1% of respondents, it begs the question on the kind of democracy African citizens want. 

More than 80% of respondents in three countries expressed their preference for democracy: Zimbabwe (85.4%), Zambia (84.6%) and Senegal (81.5%). A further 28 countries had more than 50% of their respondents voice their support for democracy over any other form of government. Of the countries surveyed, only six had less than 50% of people express support for democracy: Sao Tome and Principe (33.3%), Mali (39.6%), Eswatini (44.5%), Angola (44.9%), Mozambique (47.5%) and South Africa (48.5%).

On the opposite end of the spectrum, more than half the countries (28 in total) have less than 20% of their respondents which prefer a non-democratic form of government showcasing that this is a rather unpopular stance across the continent. Countries with higher proportions of respondents in favour of non-democratic forms of government include Mali (42.2%) and Cameroon (30.0%). These countries are the only two to have around 30% or more. Overall, this shows citizens in Africa see democracy as having a major role in the governance of their countries. 

Country context: In the case of Mali, it is unsurprising that respondents would prefer non-democratic government in some circumstances given the coup in 2021 led by General Assim Goita. Afrobarometer surveys showed 80% of Malians supported military rule in the 2021/2023 round. Citizens had already been staging anti-government protests against then President Ibrahim Boubacar Ketia for his handling of jihadi violence. In 2025, the country finally had elections marking the end of the transition period, won by the then coup leader and now President Goita. Yet Afrobarometer surveys still show 73.0% of respondents either approve or strongly approve of the army governing the country. 

For other countries that also have a high share of respondents welcoming non-democratic government in certain circumstances, there is a need to contextualise grievances of citizens which may lead them to be disenfranchised with democracy. For instance, for too long the benchmark for many African countries has been to have democratic elections but there is a lack of emphasis on upholding democratic values during their terms.

Two years into President Ruto’s democratically elected term, protesters were met with a violent government response, with little accountability for the infringements on citizens democratic freedoms. This consequently leaves citizens in a state of ‘waithood’ enduring years till the end of a leader’s political term. In some countries, coups have become a quick remedy to oust leaders as seen in Mali and Burkina Faso, but this too has put citizens in a secondary ‘waithood’ during prolonged transition periods and delays to civilian governance as seen in Sudan prior to the civil war in 2023. 

Country context: In the case of Cameroon, an election nor a coup has given the citizens a way out from 92-year-old Paul Biya whom extended his 43-year presidency in the 2025 elections which led to protesters and opposition leaders’ deaths. Interestingly the contested election results are at odds with the public sentiment in the lead up to the election period (2024/2025) which found: 

• 80.2% of Cameroonians reject one party rule 

• 74.8% believe many parties are necessary for citizens to have real choices in who governs them 

• 67.5% of Cameroonians do not trust the electoral commission at all or just a little 

• 53.2% of Cameroonians believe their president or his officials are involved in corruption 

• Only 15.6% believe the last election was completely free or fair 

As for the public perception of the economic performance of the country: 

• 78.4% of people in Cameroon think the country is going in the wrong direction 

• 66.5% describe the present economic condition as very bad or fairly bad 

• Almost 60% believed the country’s economic situation at the time was much worse or worser compared to 12 months ago 

The necessity of a change in power divides the continent 

At the continental level around half of respondents (50.7%) agree is it better for power to change from time to time in elections, while 46.4% did not mind one party always winning as long as the election is free and fair. While change of power and political turnover is considered a key factor in democracies, the results from Afrobarometer are not as clear cut as the overwhelming support for democracy. 

In all countries surveyed more than a quarter of respondents reported preferring a change of power in elections. Only three countries have a share over 70% in favour of a multiparty political turnover: Guinea (75.0%), Chad (74.5%) and Benin (74.1%).

Country context: In the case of Guinea, this result could be a response to the country’s history of having two consecutive presidents who both stayed on for three terms. In 2003, President Lansana Conte had won his third term in elections which were boycotted by the opposition. The death of Conte in 2008 led to the military seizing power but a swift return to civilian rule led to Alpha Conde taking the helm. However, for Guinea, history repeated itself with Alpha Conde winning a third term in 2021 despite violent protests and the military overthrowing in a coup. As of December 2025, the Guinea junta chief, General Mamady Doumbouya won the presidential election by 86.7% giving him a seven-year mandate. 

The 2024 election year was a historic one for Africa, not least because of the sheer number of countries that were scheduled to have elections but also the historic changes of power that took place in Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius and Senegal. Afrobarometer results are in line with the outcomes of those elections, especially in Mauritius where 61.9% of respondents value a change of power versus 32.0% who don’t mind a one-party rule as long as it’s the will of the people. A similar result can be seen in Ghana with 61.7% and 37.3% respectively. While results are closer in Senegal with those in favour of changes of power (49.8%) marginally edging out one-party rule (49.1%).

Country context: In the case of Botswana, despite the election of Duma Boko which ended a 58-year rule for independence ruling The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), the share of respondents in favour of one-party rule so long as it’s the will of the people edged out those who prefer a change of power. This is unsurprising when considering Botswana record of consecutive multiparty elections, it is clear the will of the people is a defining sign of a functioning democracy. 

Looking more closely at the countries with a higher proportion of respondents who see no issue with one party ruling so long as it’s the will of the people, the top country with a percentage of 69.7% is Sao Tome and Principe followed by Tunisia (68.5%), Lesotho (66.8%), Malawi (63.1%) and Tanzania (62.0%). Corresponding the continent top countries in favour of political turnover, as it expected the bottom three countries in support of one-party rule is: Chad (23.3%), Guinea (23.5%) and Benin (25.7%). 

Country context: In the case of Lesotho, the small kingdom surrounded by South Africa, has been marred since independence by political instability due to infighting and frequent collapses of coalitions. Since 2015, the country has had four different prime ministers, despite prime ministerial terms expected to last five years. This tumultuous period has stifled economic development and thus respondents in this survey may be conveying a yearning for political stability. 

Conclusion 

As democracy around Africa continues to evolve, public perception data offers invaluable insights into how citizens understand and evaluate democracy. It reveals not only what people want from their political systems but also the reasons why. Contextualising public opinion is therefore essential to drawing meaningful conclusions instead of making continental generalisations which offer limited nuance. It is clear in the data provided in the blog, peoples lived experiences are reflected in their preferences and assessments of the realities of their country’s political state and this is paramount for supporting necessary democratic reforms that reflect citizen sentiments. Ultimately this blog has shown there is not a single African democratic experience and therefore the perspectives of the people who live it every day is critical.