COP31: Africa’s road to implementation

When it comes to the global climate debate, Africa cannot just be seen as a vulnerable continent requesting help.

Its critical minerals, renewable energy sources, carbon-sinking potential and role in the green economic transition mean it must be considered as a key stakeholder. In recent years, this has led the continent to articulate a common African position at the first African Climate Summit, held in Nairobi in 2023 and again in Addis Ababa in 2025. Going forward into COP31, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation reiterates its four climate priorities for Africa:

Read our previous publications:

• From Nairobi to Addis Ababa: Taking stock of the 2023 Nairobi Declaration ahead of the second Africa Climate Summit
• Africa on the Road to COP30: From Addis Ababa to Belém

Arriving in Antalya: where Africa stands ahead of COP31 

In 2025, extreme weather and climate events affected at least 13 million people across Africa and led to more than 3,000 reported deaths, with drought alone affecting more than 8.5 million people in East Africa, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The economic toll is equally heavy.

African countries are estimated to lose between 2% and 5% of their gross domestic product every year to climate extremes, and many are diverting up to 9% of national budgets to respond to them. 

Without adequate action, up to 118 million people living in extreme poverty on the continent could be exposed to drought, floods, and extreme heat by 2030. 

These realities form the backdrop to COP31, which takes place in Antalya, Türkiye this November. The annual Conference of the Parties brings together the 197 states and the European Union bound by the UNFCCC treaty through which countries committed to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.

There is undoubtedly much to address this COP, as the inter-sessional talks in Bonn (the formal technical negotiation sessions which precede each COP) closed this June with little agreed text on key issues such as the Global Goal on Adaptation and the finance owed by developed countries. Türkiye’s Presidency has framed this as both an 'Implementation COP' and 'COP of the Future', which has set the stage for countries to be bold, forward-looking, and effective in their approaches. 

For Africa, COP31 is also a bridge: COP32 will be held in Addis Ababa in 2027, the first COP to be hosted by a designated least developed country. African institutions are treating the two summits as a continuum running from Belem in 2024, through Antalya, and to Addis. 

As countries assess progress on climate action, Africa occupies a distinctive position: it is among the regions most affected by climate change, yet also among those best placed to lead the response. This blog examines the continent’s pre-conference preparations, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and adaptation plans to assess how Africa is approaching this year’s highly anticipated COP. 

How are Africa’s coalitions preparing? 

Addis Ababa: setting the continental agenda 

The 14th Conference on Climate Change and Development in Africa (CCDA-14) met in Addis Ababa in September under the theme 'From Pledges to Implementation: The Belém-Antalya-Addis Roadmap'. Convened through the ClimDev-Africa programme of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, the African Union Commission, the African Development Bank, and Afreximbank, in partnership with the Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance, the conference brought together governments, civil society, and the private sector to strengthen the continent’s collective messaging ahead of COP31. Finance sat at the centre of the discussions. 

Africa requires an estimated $277 billion per year through 2030 to implement its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and current flows cover only around 11% of that need. 

The conference’s recommendations called for finance that is predictable, adequate, accessible, and non-debt-creating, and urged developed countries to meet the obligations they hold under the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Delegates closed with a call for Africa to move “from participation to climate agency” and from pledges to delivery. 

The recommendations also pointed towards what Africa holds as much as what it needs. Green assets, the natural resources on which a cleaner global economy depends, are abundant on the continent. Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves, yet most are exported unprocessed, which limits the value, revenue, and jobs that stay in producing countries. CCDA-14 accordingly called for local processing so that producing countries capture a fairer share of that value. The renewable energy potential is similarly large. 

The continent receives sunlight 60% higher than the global average but accounts for only around 2% of global utility-scale solar generation, and IFC analysis has suggested that onshore wind resources alone could meet the continent’s electricity demand many times over. 

East Africa: a regional push on adaptation and access 

At the regional level, East African Community Partner States met in Machakos, Kenya, from late September into early October to validate a common position for COP31. Their asks centre on adaptation and on how finance reaches the countries that need it: predictable, accessible, and grant-based finance, a tripling of adaptation finance by 2035, and greater direct access to international climate funds for national institutions. The bloc also called for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage to be fully capitalised, and for adaptation and loss and damage support that does not deepen the debt burdens of vulnerable economies. 

The figures explain why these asks carry such weight. Africa received around $13 billion a year in adaptation finance in 2021–2022, only about 20% of global adaptation finance flows and well short of an estimated need of $53 billion per year, a figure the authors suggest may understate the true cost by as much as half. Money for loss and damage, meaning recovery from disasters that can no longer be avoided, is scarcer still. The new fund had only around $250 million for its first funding round against roughly $2 to 3 billion in requests, with African countries submitting the largest share at $1.4 billion. 

Measuring whether adaptation efforts have worked is a hard task. In 2023, the two-year UAE-Belem work programme to develop indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation was launched. The purpose of this programme was to give countries a common way to track progress on targets including water security, food production, health, and protection from climate-related disasters. An expert group proposed 100 indicators, which were shortened to 59 by the COP30 Presidency. These became the Belem Adaptation Indicators, adopted on a voluntary basis and includes guidelines for finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building. 

At COP31, negotiators will continue the follow-up work under the Belem-Addis Vision on Adaptation, supported by a new technical taskforce, to agree how indicators are applied and reported. This effort will conclude at COP32 in Addis Ababa. For African countries, these indicators offer a way to demonstrate progress, make a case for further support, and ensure that adaptation remains forefront in climate efforts. 

At the negotiating table: the African Group of Negotiators 

The African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change (AGN), chaired by Ghana for 2026–2027, has spent the year consolidating the continent’s technical positions. Building on its first in-person strategy meeting in Accra in the spring, the group has agreed a 'COP31 Action Matrix' setting out responsibilities, timelines, and expected deliverables across adaptation, climate finance, just transition, and agriculture. Speaking at a pre-COP31 strategy meeting in Nairobi in October, AGN Chair Nana Dr Antwi-Boasiako Amoah described Antalya as an 'implementation COP' for Africa, one that should help countries carry out their adaptation plans, NDCs, and long-term strategies. 

Adaptation is where the AGN has the longest history. The Global Goal on Adaptation was first proposed by the group in 2013 to give adaptation equal standing with mitigation in climate governance, yet the first set of 59 indicators to measure progress was only agreed at COP30 last year. In consultations with the incoming Presidency on 14 October, the AGN set out what it hopes Antalya will deliver: a two-year technical task force on adaptation indicators and methodologies, structured discussions on tripling adaptation finance by 2035, and a decision allowing the Adaptation Fund to begin serving the Paris Agreement through a share of carbon market proceeds. 

Practical progress on adaptation already exists to build on, as early warning systems and anticipatory action have helped save lives in South Africa, Nigeria, and Ghana, although fewer than 40% of African countries report having preparedness and response capabilities in place. 

On finance, the AGN is pressing for substantive talks on Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, which states that developed countries “shall provide” financial resources to developing countries, alongside a clear signal on replenishing the Green Climate Fund. Whether a dedicated Article 9 item even makes it onto the COP31 agenda remained uncertain after Bonn and is likely to be one of the first tests of the summit. 

The group is also seeking to operationalise the Just Transition Mechanism agreed in Belém. For Africa, a just transition means moving away from fossil fuels in a way that creates decent jobs and does not ask the continent to sacrifice its development goals. The AGN Chair has stressed that any transition must account for energy access, poverty eradication, food security, and industrialisation, and has warned against climate measures becoming tools of protectionism. 

Sub-Saharan Africa was home to 563 million people without electricity in 2024, while only 21% of the estimated annual finance needed for renewable energy generation reaches the continent. 

Power Shift Africa estimates that a full transition to renewables by 2050 could save Africa $3 to 5 trillion and add 5.4 million energy sector jobs. 

At the highest political level 

This message has been echoed by heads of state. At the African Union summit in February, Kenyan President William Ruto, as Coordinator of the Committee of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change, told fellow leaders that “finance remains the central constraint”. He reconvened the Committee on the margins of the UN General Assembly in September, where he called for adaptation finance commitments to be turned into a clear implementation pathway ahead of Antalya. 

What do national climate plans tell us? 

NDCs are the climate plans each country submits under the Paris Agreement, setting out how it intends to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. The third round, known as NDC 3.0, adds targets for 2035 and was due in 2025, following the first Global Stocktake at COP28, which found the world off track to limit warming to 1.5°C. Progress in Africa was initially slow, with Zimbabwe the only African country to meet the February 2025 deadline. 

39 African countries have now submitted an NDC 3.0, with combined finance needs that the Africa NDC Hub places at around $1.8 trillion. 

A few national plans stand out. Ethiopia’s NDC uses forest and land restoration as the foundation of its mitigation strategy, drawing on its Green Legacy Initiative, which has generated 2.24 million green jobs and over $100 million in forest product exports since 2019. By 2035, these efforts are expected to account for more than 77% of the country’s total mitigation effort. As incoming COP32 host, Ethiopia also has a particular stake in Antalya, and it is the only African country among the five pilot countries selected for the Climate Implementation Bridge (BRIDGE), an initiative launched by the COP31 Presidency and UNDP to help turn NDCs into investable project pipelines that can attract finance more quickly. 

As Africa’s most populous country and a major oil and gas producer, Nigeria’s plan sets the tone of how fossil fuel-dependent economies can chart the way to net-zero. Its NDC 3.0 commits to cutting emissions by 32% by 2035 against 2018 levels, retains a 20% unconditional reduction by 2030, aims for renewables to make up half of the electricity generation mix by 2030, and sets a net zero target for 2060. 

Other notable reductions: Kenya has committed to a 35% reduction in emissions by 2035, Somalia has set a 34% target in its first comprehensive update, and Zambia has detailed conditional reductions of 25-47%, supported by clearer sectoral measures. Across the submissions, renewable energy, sustainable land use, forestry, and waste management feature prominently, as does a greater attention to adaptation. 

National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) offer a closer look at how countries intend to manage the climate impacts they already face. According to NAP Central, 28 African countries have now submitted a NAP to the UNFCCC. Tanzania submitted a ten-year plan in January comprising 36 programmes across 18 sectors, with an estimated cost of $37 billion and a dedicated climate finance mechanism within its Ministry of Finance. Ghana’s plan identifies a need of more than $20 billion between 2025 and 2030 across agriculture, water, health, ecosystems, disaster risk management, and urban resilience. 

Adaptation finance reaching the continent has more than doubled from USD 6.3 billion in 2017 to USD 14.8 billion in 2023, but still lacking on the annual need which is estimated around USD 70 billion. 

The continent has received only 20% of global adaptation finance flows in 2021-2022, lagging significantly behind other regions such as East Asia and the Pacific, which received about 45% in the same year. 

As reports make clear that the world set to cross the threshold of 1.5°C, that means we can expect more severe climate impacts and risks including but not limited to wildfires, floods, and extreme temperatures. Adaptation is now critical than ever to ensure that the infrastructure, policies, and processes are robust and adept at facing these risks. 

Although countries are ambitious in their NDCs, these figures remain conditional and heavily dependent on the ability for African states to access accessible financing, provided more as grants rather than loans that carry along with the burden of debt. In addition, they require intentional technology transfer and capacity-building to ensure the outcomes of such efforts result in sustainable development. 

What to watch in Antalya 

Several outcomes will indicate whether COP31 lives up to its billing as an 'Implementation COP' for Africa. On adaptation, the key questions are whether parties agree a clear baseline and set of contributors for tripling adaptation finance by 2035, and whether the Global Goal on Adaptation indicators are tied to the means of implementing them. 

On finance, attention will be on whether Article 9 secures a place on the agenda and whether the new finance goal agreed at COP29 begins to show a credible path to delivery, alongside adequate resourcing for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. On the energy transition, the shape of the Just Transition Mechanism, and whether it reflects the continent’s priority on energy access and local value creation, will be telling. 

With Addis Ababa hosting the next COP, the outcomes in Antalya will also shape the prime concerns and key topics that will take centre-stage on the continent in 2027.