Why authoritarianism is gaining ground and why Africa should care

Democracies worldwide are on the decline. From 12.5% a decade ago, only 6.6% of the global population now lives in full democracies. In Africa, less than 1% of people live in a full democracy (EUI, 2025). Authoritarianism is re-emerging quickly, not only in fragile states but also in places that were once regarded as democratic successes.

From the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, we are seeing military takeovers, shrinking civic spaces, and manipulated elections. But what explains this resurgence? And why does it matter for Africa’s governance future?

This blog delves into the primary forces driving the rise of authoritarianism—and why this trend should concern us all.

Democratic Erosion and Authoritarian Surge: Two Sides of the Same Coin

Authoritarianism seldom appears suddenly. It often follows a gradual and steady erosion of democratic norms. We’ve seen this occur where leaders who were democratically elected gradually weaken institutions, capture the judiciary, and control the media, thereby eroding checks and balances from within (Levitsky & Ziblatt, 2018).

Tunisia, Uganda, Rwanda, Cameroon, Congo Republic, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon are notable examples of African countries where democratically elected leaders have either amended their country’s constitutions to extend their terms, through questionable referendum, or reshaped the constitution to centralise authority in the presidency (Kakumba, 2021; McVeigh, 2015; Musa, 2008; Transparency International, 2015; BBC, 2011 Ondo & Mouity, 2021). These institutional erosions are mirrored in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) data, where each of these countries records persistently low or declining scores on participation, rights, transparency, and rule of law, signalling weakening democratic governance (MIF, 2024).

This is why we cannot simply treat democratic backsliding and authoritarianism as separate phenomena; they are deeply interconnected. When citizens lose faith in democracy, authoritarian alternatives start to look more appealing. This explains citizens’ reception of military leadership in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Afrobarometer data show that support for democracy has sharply declined in these countries, with only 37.7% of Malians in 2021/2023 still favouring democracy (a drop of 27.5 points since 2016/2018). Meanwhile, support for military rule rose dramatically: in Mali, nearly 80% now endorse military rule (up from 31.1% in 2016/2018), and in Burkina Faso, support rose from 50% to 63.5% over the same period (MIF, 2023).

Why Authoritarianism Appeals Today

1. The Security-for-Freedom Trade-off

As Fromm (1994) predicted decades ago, freedom can feel dangerous when society is in crisis, making authoritarian leaders seem like saviours. Whenever insecurity rises, people tend to prioritise safety over liberty. In the Sahel, coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (BBC, 2020; France 24, 2022; AFP, 2023) were met with celebrations by crowds demanding strong leadership. These regimes justified their actions as responses to terrorism and fragile states.

In Burkina Faso, this justification was reinforced by reality: the 2024 IIAG shows that between 2017 and 2021 the country registered the steepest decline in Security & Safety across Africa (-30.5 points), driven by surging militant violence and armed conflict. No African country declined more in the indicators for Absence of Armed Conflict (-59.0) and Absence of Violence against Civilians (-62.5) during this period, highlighting the scale of insecurity that fuelled public frustration with civilian leadership (MIF, 2023).

This pattern is not unique to Africa. In Myanmar, the military’s 2021 coup was justified on grounds of protecting national stability in the face of contested elections and long-standing internal insurgencies. The generals claimed only military rule could restore order in a fragile state beset by security crises (International Crisis Group, 2021).

2. Disillusionment with Democracy and Trust in Autocracy

Another striking pattern is how quickly people turn away from democracy when it fails to deliver. In Mali, for example, thousands cheered when President Keïta was ousted in 2020—not because they hated elections, but because they had lost confidence in democratic institutions to solve everyday problems (Cheeseman, 2024).

Even global surveys now show that citizens in some authoritarian states trust their governments more than those in democracies (Edelman Trust Institute, 2024). According to Afrobarometer (2024), only 39% of Africans say they are satisfied with how democracy works in their country, down 11 points over the past decade, and barely 45% believe their countries are mostly or fully democratic. In Mali specifically, support for democracy has fallen to just 39%, among the lowest on the continent, while rejection of military rule has dropped to 18%. Part of the reason is perception: authoritarian regimes are often seen as more efficient. For instance, the IMF projects Burkina Faso and Niger, both under military rule, are among the world’s fastest-growing economies (Okebiorun, 2025).

What remains uncertain, however, is whether these shifts represent a temporary response to democratic failure or the beginnings of a longer-term reorientation of public trust toward authoritarian governance. If military regimes continue to outperform elected governments on issues that matter most—security, stability, and economic delivery—citizens may begin to see authoritarianism not as a regrettable necessity, but as a preferable model. That would mark not just a crisis of governance, but a crisis of faith in democracy itself, and that is precisely why Africa should care.

3. Nation-Building as a Premise for Control

For decades, foreign aid used to come with democratic conditions (Dunning, 2004), but now those lines have blurred. This shift gives leaders more room to consolidate power without fear of losing external support (Brown & Fisher, 2019).

Although leaders in countries like Rwanda and Ethiopia hold regular elections and describe their systems as democratic, international indices such as the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index classify them as “authoritarian regimes” (EUI, 2025). Citizens will not rally behind democratic ideals if they see them as hollow promises. Rwanda, for example, has maintained internal peace and relatively low corruption, which helps it market itself as a stable, safe investment destination — part of why foreign investors injected over USD 523 million in FDI in 2023 (UNCTAD, 2024). Evidence from the African Development Bank and UNCTAD shows that security and perceived country risk strongly shape investment decisions: insecurity deters FDI, while improved stability helps attract investors (AfDB, 2022; UNCTAD, 2024).

When donors accept this trade-off, it normalises authoritarian practices—and creates a model others can follow.

4. The Power of International Alliances

Lastly, the role of global politics must be acknowledged. Today’s authoritarian regimes are not isolated—they are networked. Russia and China, for example, have repeatedly shielded fellow autocracies like Myanmar and Sudan from UN sanctions (Strangio, 2022). They also provide military, financial, and diplomatic support that makes it easier for these regimes to survive (Herbst & Marczak, 2019).

This trend is evident in Africa, where authoritarian leaders are forming strategic partnerships with non-democratic powers, allowing them to bypass traditional Western pressure and reducing the impact of international condemnation.

What Does This Mean for Africa?

Africa stands at a crossroads. The continent has made significant democratic gains since the 1990s. Most recently, 2024 marked one of the busiest election years in Africa’s history: 13 of 17 scheduled polls were held, with seven incumbents retaining power and six new leaders elected. Notably, four countries—Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius, and Senegal—experienced historic transfers of power, the highest number in recent memory. Yet these gains were offset by setbacks. Four elections were postponed, and across most election countries, participation, rights, and civic space declined in the decade leading up to 2024, with disputed polls in Tunisia and Mozambique underscoring the fragility of democratic institutions (MIF, 2024). If current dynamics persist, Africa risks entering a new era of “developmental authoritarianism,” a model seen in parts of Asia where rapid growth was prioritised over accountability—though its applicability across Africa’s varied authoritarian trends remains contested (Mabasa & Mqolomba, 2016).

This matters because governance—not regime type alone—determines development outcomes. As the Ibrahim Index of African Governance consistently shows, nations that uphold transparency, participation, and the rule of law outperform those that rely on unchecked executive power. History reminds us: examples such as Ethiopia’s rapid growth followed by instability, or Zimbabwe’s initial economic gains under state-led control, collapsing into crisis (Chipanda, 2025; Cross, 2013), show that authoritarian shortcuts may deliver short-term benefits but often result in long-term costs—political instability, elite capture, and suppressed innovation.

If current trends continue, the continent could see stronger states, but weaker citizens.

The Road Ahead: Can Democracy Deliver?

Democracy is not in irreversible decline, but it must adapt. Afrobarometer’s survey (2024) shows that two-thirds of Africans (66%) still prefer democracy to any other form of government, and large majorities reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%). To reclaim trust, democratic systems need to deliver not only on civil liberties but also on security, economic inclusion, and governance effectiveness. 

At the same time, global actors must resist the temptation to excuse repression in the name of stability and should call out so-called democracies that fall short long before they slide into military interventions or coups. The real question is whether citizens are willing to forgo their democratic freedoms—and for how long—in exchange for development.

Final Thought

Africa deserves leaders who provide both stability and freedom—who demonstrate that democracy can work for citizens, not just for elites. Authoritarianism may appear as a quick fix, but history warns us that it often creates bigger problems down the road (Chipanda, 2025; Cross, 2013).

As the world watches the democratic experiment falter in some regions, Africa has an opportunity to lead a different story: one where governance reform, institutional strength, and citizen participation anchor sustainable development —while defining democracy on its own terms.