COP30 outcomes for Africa

Picture: Ricardo Stuckert / PR / CC BY-SA 4.0

COP30 in Belém, Brazil, opened under a shadow of geopolitical absence and dwindling scientific optimism. For the first time, the US did not send a delegation, and both the US’ and China’s (the world’s largest emitters of CO2) heads of state were absent from the negotiations. At the same time, new research published just before the summit suggests that the 1.5°C (and even 2°C) targets are slipping out of reach. Against this backdrop, negotiations became long and tense, and ultimately delivered a shaky deal. 

Phasing out fossil fuels: a partial pledge without a concrete roadmap 

The summit’s final Belém Package stopped short of delivering a binding, time-bound roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out. While draft decisions had included specific references to said phase-out, the final decision refers only to the ‘UAE Consensus’ from COP28 in Dubai – vague language that lacks specificity and only commits to planning an eventual transition away from fossil fuel usage. 

While over 80 countries supported an initiative to draw up a fossil fuel transition roadmap, this was ultimately relegated to an informal process, separate from the formal UN negotiating text. That omission represents a missed opportunity: Africa, which contributes only about 3% of global emissions yet bears disproportionate climate risk, cannot simply leap to a low-carbon future without a clear, financed pathway out of fossil dependency. 

Nonetheless, there was grounds for cautious optimism: COP30 established a Just Transition Mechanism, meant to support regions whose economies rely heavily on fossil fuel revenues (among them African oil producers and exporters) through tailored packages for economic diversification, social protection for affected workers, and investment in skills, technology transfer and clean-energy industries. 

Access to electricity and clean energy remains a sticking point 

In Belém, the Action Agenda (COP30’s implementation-oriented framework that mobilises non-party actors such as businesses, cities, investors, civil society and subnational governments) saw a wave of voluntary commitments. Public utility companies pledged $66 billion annually for renewables, and $82 billion for transmission and storage – important, concrete steps toward closing Africa’s and developing regions’ energy access gaps. 

Yet the absence of a firm, legally binding fossil fuel phase-out undermines the clarity and security of the transition. Africa needs not only private and philanthropic pledges but predictable concessional finance and policy guarantees that can support off-grid, utility-scale, and mini-grid clean energy systems for underserved populations. 

Just a day after the closing of COP30, this year’s G20 summit hosted in Johannesburg, South Africa, from 22-23 November 2025 (making it the first G20 summit on African soil), emphasised strengthening climate resilience, disaster recovery and adaptation in Africa. G20 leaders endorsed the Mission 300 partnership between the World Bank and the AfDB to provide electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030 and expand access to clean cooking. 

The G20’s final declaration also welcomed the voluntary, non-binding G20 Critical Minerals Framework, aimed at strengthening sustainable and resilient mineral value chains and increasing local processing and investment in developing, mineral-rich countries. 

Major wins for adaptation finance and the Global Goal on Adaptation 

COP30 delivered several major wins on the adaptation agenda: 

• Increasing adaptation finance: Parties agreed to ‘at least triple’ adaptation finance by 2035. 

• Baku Adaptation Roadmap: The Belém Package formalised a roadmap for 2026-2028, laying the groundwork for greater coherence and implementation until the next Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement. 

• Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA): For the first time, a set of 59 voluntary, non-prescriptive indicators was agreed, covering water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods, finance, capacity, and technology. 

• Tropical Rainforest Forever Fund (TFFF): This Brazil-led initiative, from which African rainforests would benefit as well, launched with $6.6 billion, making it the largest financial instrument of its kind. 

However, the financing commitment is deferred to 2035, and the indicators remain voluntary, which risks dilution, uneven application, and under-resourced national plans. Without strong follow-through, Africa may once again be left behind in translating resilience goals into concrete protection for its most climate-vulnerable communities. 

Scaling-up and reform of international climate finance architecture reconfirmed

Africa’s loss and damage needs received acknowledgment: COP30 operationalised and confirmed replenishment cycles for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, with payouts to affected countries starting in 2026. But for many African states, loss and damage is not future risk, but represents acute reality. This funding window must be scaled rapidly and disbursed with direct access, transparency and speed. 

On the wider finance architecture, COP30 reconfirmed the scaling-up of climate finance flows to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 through the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap. The roadmap outlines five priority ‘Rs’: 

• Replenishing grants and concessional capital, 

• Rebalancing debt sustainability, 

• Rechanneling private finance, 

• Revamping capacity, 

• Reshaping the global system for more equitable flows. 

Crucially for Africa, the Belém Package calls for reform of multilateral development banks, enhanced role for grant-based instruments, blended finance, guarantees and debt-for-climate swaps. These proposals echo the continent’s pre-COP demands for a fairer financial architecture, not only more monetary pledges.

Still, critics warn the roadmap risks being non-binding if not backed by strong accountability mechanisms. To deliver for Africa and other developing regions, the pledge must translate into trustable flows, manageable terms, and accessible structures. 

After already delivering a successful second Africa Climate Summit in September 2025, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, was chosen as the host city of COP32 in 2027, after the African Group of Negotiators endorsed the country’s bid over Nigeria’s. This will be the fourth COP taking place in Africa, and the second one in a span of five years, cementing the continent’s growing leverage in global climate negotiations.