Security & Rule of Law: the fastest declining IIAG category
The trajectory of the Security & Rule of Law IIAG category has hindered governance progress over the decade of data covered by the 2022 IIAG data set (2012-2021). Although Security & Rule of Law remains the second highest scoring category in 2021, with an African average score of 49.0 (out of 100.0), it has declined faster than any other IIAG category both over the decade (2012-2021) and in the latest five years (2017-2021).
As a result of this decline, almost 70% of Africa's population lives in a country where the security and rule of law environment is worse in 2021 than in 2012. This concerning situation worsened with the advent of COVID-19 – with the pace of decline in key security-related indicators accelerating between 2019 and 2021.
At the sub-category level, the decline in the Security & Rule of Law category over the decade has been driven by the sub-categories Security & Safety (-5.8) and Accountability & Transparency (-1.3). In opposition to this, both Rule of Law & Justice (+1.4) and Anti-Corruption (+0.7) have improved since 2012.
Security & Rule of Law: sub-category trends (2012-2021)
At the country level, Seychelles has shown the largest improvement over the decade (+11.9), while South Sudan has registered the largest deterioration (-13.1). In 2021, the top five highest-scoring countries in the Security & Rule of Law category were: Seychelles, Mauritius, Botswana, Cabo Verde, and Namibia whereas South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, DR Congo, and Sudan were the lowest-scoring countries.
Deteriorating Security & Safety drives overall category decline
The decline in the Security & Rule of Law category has been driven mostly by the negative trajectory of the Security & Safety sub-category both over the ten-year and five-year periods (-5.8 and -2.8, respectively), with a faster pace of decline in the latest period (at an annual average rate of -0.70 compared to -0.64 over the decade). Even though Security & Safety (73.5) remains the highest scoring IIAG sub-category in 2021, it has been the most declined out of the 16 sub-categories over the decade and the second most declined since 2017. As a result of this deterioration, almost 90% of the continent’s population (87.8%) lives in a country where Security & Safety has declined since 2012, more than for any other sub-category.
Every indicator sitting in the Security & Safety sub-category has deteriorated at the African average level both over the decade and in the latest five years. Since 2012, the main drivers of the deteriorating security situation on the continent have been a rise in violence against civilians as well as in armed conflicts. Out of the 81 IIAG indicators, the Absence of Violence Against Civilians (-10.9) and the Absence of Armed Conflict (-8.6) have been the second and third most deteriorated indicators over the ten-year period.
Governments are less accountable and transparent in 2021 than any time over the last ten years
The Accountability & Transparency sub-category has also declined over the decade and in the last five years (-1.3 and -0.4, respectively). Although the pace of decline has slowed down between 2017-2021 (at an annual average rate of -0.10 compared to -0.14 over the decade), it records its lowest score over the decade in 2021 (37.9). Over the decade, the indicators Absence of Undue Influence on Government (-5.8) and Institutional Checks & Balances (-5.3) have been the main drivers of sub-category decline.
Alarm bells for rule of law and anti-corruption measures
Further deterioration at the category level has been slowed by the still positive ten-year trajectories of the sub-categories Rule of Law & Justice and Anti-Corruption (+1.4 and +0.7, respectively). However, both sub-categories have registered warning signs in the latest five years, with Rule of Law & Justice recording a deterioration and progress in the Anti-Corruption sub-category stalling. For Rule of Law & Justice, has been driven mostly by an environment where Africa’s citizens have become less equal before the law and judicial systems less impartial. Lack of progress since 2017 in Anti-Corruption has been mostly due to an accelerated pace of deterioration in the indicators Anti-Corruption Mechanisms and Public Procurement Procedures.
